{"id":2079,"date":"2025-04-07T07:04:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-06T23:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.laoyulaoyu.top\/?p=2079"},"modified":"2025-03-23T17:32:32","modified_gmt":"2025-03-23T09:32:32","slug":"%e5%88%ab%e5%86%8d%e4%b9%b1%e5%8d%96%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%81%e8%bf%99%e5%a5%97%e9%87%8f%e5%8c%96%e6%ad%a2%e7%9b%88%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e8%af%b7%e6%9f%a5%e6%94%b6%e9%99%84%e6%ba%90%e7%a0%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/07\/%e5%88%ab%e5%86%8d%e4%b9%b1%e5%8d%96%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%81%e8%bf%99%e5%a5%97%e9%87%8f%e5%8c%96%e6%ad%a2%e7%9b%88%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e8%af%b7%e6%9f%a5%e6%94%b6%e9%99%84%e6%ba%90%e7%a0%81\/","title":{"rendered":"\u522b\u518d\u4e71\u5356\u80a1\u7968\u4e86\uff01\u8fd9\u5957\u91cf\u5316\u6b62\u76c8\u7b56\u7565\u8bf7\u67e5\u6536(\u9644\u6e90\u7801)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8001\u4f59\u635e\u9c7c<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color\">\u539f\u521b\u4e0d\u6613\uff0c\u8f6c\u8f7d\u8bf7\u6807\u660e\u51fa\u5904\u53ca\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u3002<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-74-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4588\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<pre class=\"wp-block-verse\"><strong>\u5199\u5728\u524d\u9762\u7684\u8bdd\uff1a<\/strong>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u5957\u6bd4\u8f83\u6210\u719f\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u6295\u8d44\u6b62\u76c8\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">\u7528\u9884\u671f\u4e0a\u884c\u6f5c\u529b\uff08EUP\uff09\u548c\u5f02\u8d28\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\uff08HAR\uff09\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u80fd\u7cbe\u51c6\u627e\u5230\u6b62\u76c8\u70b9\u3002<\/mark>\u901a\u8fc7\u4ee3\u7801\u5b9e\u64cd\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u6570\u636e\u5c31\u80fd\u786e\u5b9a\u5356\u51fa\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u5feb\u6765\u548c\u6211\u4e00\u8d77\u5b66\uff0c\u80fd\u8ba9\u4f60\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u6536\u76ca\u66f4\u4e0a\u4e00\u5c42\u697c\uff01<\/pre>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u91cf\u5316\u91d1\u878d\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u6ce2\u52a8\u9884\u6d4b\u5bf9\u5236\u5b9a\u6b62\u76c8\u64cd\u4f5c\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565\u90a3\u53ef\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u5173\u952e\u7684\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u7ed9\u5927\u5bb6\u5206\u4eab\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5b83\u7ed3\u5408\u4e86\u6761\u4ef6\u98ce\u9669\u4ef7\u503c\uff08\u54b1\u4eec\u56fd\u5185\u4e00\u822c\u53eb\u9884\u671f\u4e0a\u884c\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f EUP\uff09\u548c\u5f02\u8d28\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\uff08HAR \u6a21\u578b\uff09\uff0c\u80fd\u5e2e\u5927\u5bb6\u66f4\u79d1\u5b66\u5730\u505a\u51fa\u6b62\u76c8\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-73-1024x652.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4579\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u4ee5\u7f8e\u80a1\u201c\u4e03\u5de8\u5934\u201d \u80a1\u7968\u7684\u7b49\u6743\u91cd\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e3a\u4f8b\u6765\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e00\u3001\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u6784\u5efa<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u96c5\u864e\u8d22\u7ecf\u83b7\u53d6\u8fd9\u4e03\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u5728 2020 \u5e74 1 \u6708 1 \u65e5\u5230 2025 \u5e74 3 \u6708 15 \u65e5\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8c03\u6574\u6536\u76d8\u4ef7\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7528 Python \u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u6bcf\u65e5\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u3002\u4ee3\u7801\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>import numpy as np\nimport pandas as pd\nimport yfinance as yf\nimport statsmodels.api as sm\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n\nplt.close('all')\n\ntickers = &#91;\"AAPL\", \"MSFT\", \"NVDA\", \"AMZN\", \"TSLA\", \"META\", \"GOOGL\"]\ndata = yf.download(tickers, start=\"2020-01-01\", end=\"2025-03-15\", auto_adjust=False)&#91;\"Close\"]\nreturns = data.pct_change().dropna()\n\n# \u7b49\u6743\u91cd\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\nweights = np.ones(len(tickers)) \/ len(tickers)\nportfolio_returns = returns.dot(weights)\nportfolio_prices = (1 + portfolio_returns).cumprod() * 100  # \u521d\u59cb\u503c\u8bbe\u4e3a100\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u6bb5\u4ee3\u7801\u91cc\uff0c\u5148\u662f\u5bfc\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u5e93\uff0c\u50cf<code>numpy<\/code>\u3001<code>pandas<\/code>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u5904\u7406\u6570\u636e\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u3002\u7136\u540e\u7528<code>yfinance<\/code>\u5e93\u83b7\u53d6\u80a1\u7968\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u540e\u6784\u5efa\u7b49\u6743\u91cd\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u8fd8\u80fd\u7b97\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u8ba1\u7b97\u6bcf\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u65e5\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff08<code>pct_change<\/code>\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6784\u5efa\u7b49\u6743\u91cd\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u6bcf\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u76f8\u540c\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8ba1\u7b97\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u65e5\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u548c\u7d2f\u8ba1\u4ef7\u683c\uff08\u4ee5 100 \u4e3a\u57fa\u51c6\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e8c\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u98ce\u9669\u4ef7\u503c\u548c\u9884\u671f\u4e0a\u884c\u6f5c\u529b<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3a\u4e86\u8861\u91cf\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e24\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u6307\u6807\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u98ce\u9669\u4ef7\u503c\uff08VaR 95%\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u5c31\u662f\u8fc7\u53bb 60 \u5929\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u7b2c 95 \u767e\u5206\u4f4d\u6570\u3002\u8fd9\u8868\u793a\u5728 95% \u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u635f\u5931\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8d85\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u503c\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u9884\u671f\u4e0a\u884c\u6f5c\u529b\uff08EUP\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8d85\u8fc7\u7b2c 95 \u767e\u5206\u4f4d\u6570\u7684\u90a3\u4e9b\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u3002\u8fd9\u80fd\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u7a7a\u95f4\u6709\u591a\u5927\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5177\u4f53\u8ba1\u7b97\u4ee3\u7801\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>window_eup = 60\nrolling_var = portfolio_returns.rolling(window=window_eup).quantile(0.95)\ndef eup_cvar(x, alpha=95):\n    threshold = np.percentile(x, alpha)\n    tail = x&#91;x &gt;= threshold]\n    return tail.mean() if len(tail) &gt; 0 else np.nan\neup_series = portfolio_returns.rolling(window=window_eup).apply(lambda x: eup_cvar(x, alpha=95), raw=True)\nsignal = portfolio_returns &gt; rolling_var  # \u6b62\u76c8\u89e6\u53d1\u4fe1\u53f7<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u91cc\u901a\u8fc7<code>rolling<\/code>\u51fd\u6570\u8ba1\u7b97\u6eda\u52a8\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u51fd\u6570<code>eup_cvar<\/code>\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97 EUP\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f97\u51fa\u6b62\u76c8\u89e6\u53d1\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u5f53\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5927\u4e8e\u6eda\u52a8\u98ce\u9669\u4ef7\u503c\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u89e6\u53d1\u6b62\u76c8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e09\u3001\u7528 HAR \u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>HAR \u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u636e\u65e5\u3001\u5468\u3001\u6708\u4e0d\u540c\u5468\u671f\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u6bcf\u65e5\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u4ee5\u4e0b\u51e0\u4e2a\u7a97\u53e3\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u65e5\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff082 \u5929\u7a97\u53e3\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5468\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff085 \u5929\u7a97\u53e3\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6708\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff0822 \u5929\u7a97\u53e3\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ee3\u7801\u7247\u6bb5\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>vol_daily   = portfolio_returns.rolling(window=2).std()\nvol_weekly  = portfolio_returns.rolling(window=5).std()\nvol_monthly = portfolio_returns.rolling(window=22).std()\n\n# \u7bc7\u5e45\u6240\u9650\uff0c\u975e\u5b8c\u6574\u4ee3\u7801\n\nelse:\n    vol_data&#91;'vol_forecast'] = np.nan<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u6bb5\u4ee3\u7801\u5148\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e0d\u540c\u5468\u671f\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6784\u5efa\u6570\u636e\u6846\u3002\u63a5\u7740\u7528\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6784\u5efa HAR \u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/1742224661148.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4583\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u56db\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u4f8b\u548c\u767e\u5206\u6bd4<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6709\u4e86\u524d\u9762\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u80fd\u8ba1\u7b97\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u516c\u5f0f\u662f\uff1a\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u4f8b = \u9884\u671f\u4e0a\u884c\u6f5c\u529b\uff08EUP\uff09 \/ \u9884\u6d4b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u540e\u6839\u636e\u9884\u8bbe\u7684\u9608\u503c\uff0c\u628a\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6620\u5c04\u6210 0% &#8211; 100% \u7684\u5356\u51fa\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u4f8b \u2264 1.0 \u2192 0% \u5356\u51fa<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u4f8b \u2265 3.0 \u2192 100% \u5356\u51fa<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1.0 \u5230 3.0 \u4e4b\u95f4 \u2192 \u6309\u6bd4\u4f8b\u63d2\u503c\u8ba1\u7b97<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u90e8\u5206\u4ee3\u7801\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>common_index = portfolio_returns.index.intersection(vol_data&#91;'vol_forecast'].dropna().index)\n\n# \u7bc7\u5e45\u6240\u9650\uff0c\u975e\u5b8c\u6574\u4ee3\u7801\n\n    else:\n        return (r - threshold_min) \/ (threshold_max - threshold_min)\nsales_percentage = ratio.dropna().apply(sale_percentage)<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u6bb5\u4ee3\u7801\u5148\u627e\u5230\u76f8\u5173\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5171\u540c\u7d22\u5f15\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8ba1\u7b97\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u901a\u8fc7\u51fd\u6570\u628a\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u5356\u51fa\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/1742224672615.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4584\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u4f8b\u548c\u5356\u51fa\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\u5c55\u793a\u6570\u636e\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e94\u3001\u6253\u5370\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u5356\u51fa\u4fe1\u53f7<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u628a\u5356\u51fa\u4fe1\u53f7\u6253\u5370\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u56fe\u8868\u5c55\u793a\u3002\u793a\u4f8b\u4ee3\u7801\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>print(\"\u6700\u540e10\u4e2a\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff08EUP \/ \u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\uff09:\")\nprint(ratio.dropna().tail(10))\nprint(\"\\n\u6700\u540e10\u4e2a\u5356\u51fa\u767e\u5206\u6bd4:\")\nprint(sales_percentage.tail(10))\nfig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 6))\nax.plot(portfolio_prices.index, portfolio_prices, label=\"\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4ef7\u683c\", color=\"blue\")\nsales_dates = sales_percentage.index\nif not sales_dates.empty:\n    ax.scatter(sales_dates, portfolio_prices.loc&#91;sales_dates],\n               color=\"red\", marker=\"v\", s=100, label=\"\u5356\u51fa\u4fe1\u53f7\")\n    for date in sales_dates:\n        perc = sales_percentage.loc&#91;date] * 100\n        ax.annotate(f\"{perc:.0f}%\", (date, portfolio_prices.loc&#91;date]),\n                    textcoords=\"offset points\", xytext=(0,10), ha=\"center\", color=\"red\")\nax.set_title(\"\u57fa\u4e8eEUP\uff08\u53f3\u5c3eCVaR\uff09\u548cHAR\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5356\u51fa\u4fe1\u53f7\")\nax.set_xlabel(\"\u65e5\u671f\")\nax.set_ylabel(\"\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4ef7\u683c\uff08\u521d\u59cb\u503c100\uff09\")\nax.legend()\nax.grid(True)\nplt.show()<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd0\u884c\u8fd9\u6bb5\u4ee3\u7801\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u80fd\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u53f0\u770b\u5230\u6700\u540e 10 \u4e2a\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u4f8b\u548c\u5356\u51fa\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\uff0c\u8fd8\u80fd\u751f\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fe\u8868\u3002\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u84dd\u8272\u7ebf\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4ef7\u683c\u8d70\u52bf\uff0c\u7ea2\u8272\u4e09\u89d2\u5c31\u662f\u5356\u51fa\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u65c1\u8fb9\u8fd8\u6807\u7740\u5356\u51fa\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-74.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4582\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ee3\u7801\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u529f\u80fd\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4ef7\u503c\uff08VaR\uff09\u3001\u9884\u671f\u4e0a\u884c\u6f5c\u529b\uff08EUP\uff09\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff0c\u751f\u6210\u5356\u51fa\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u5e76\u6839\u636e\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u7387\u548c\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u8fdb\u884c\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u901a\u8fc7\u56fe\u8868\u76f4\u89c2\u5c55\u793a\u5356\u51fa\u4fe1\u53f7\u53ca\u5176\u5f3a\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u6e90\u4ee3\u7801\u8bf7\u5728\u6211\u7684Google Colab\u4e2d\u7533\u8bf7\u4e0b\u8f7d\uff0c\u5185\u9644\u4e2d\u6587\u6784\u5efa\u8bf4\u660e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/1742225586618.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4585\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u89c9\u5f97\u5bf9\u60a8\u6709\u6240\u5e2e\u52a9\uff0c\u8bf7\u7559\u8a00\u6216\u8005\u79c1\u4fe1\u5411\u6211\u7d22\u8981\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8bf7\u6211\u559d\u676f\u5496\u5561\u5c31\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u516d\u3001\u89c2\u70b9\u603b\u7ed3<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u4ecb\u7ecd\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u628a\u57fa\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u4e0a\u884c\u6f5c\u529b\uff08EUP\uff09\u7684\u6b62\u76c8\u4fe1\u53f7\u548c HAR \u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u80fd\u6839\u636e\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u51b5\u52a8\u6001\u8c03\u6574\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u6b62\u76c8\u9608\u503c\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u66f4\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u66f4\u7075\u6d3b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u786e\u5b9a\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408<\/strong>\uff1a\u9009\u53d6\u4e03\u53ea\u4e3b\u8981\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u6784\u5efa\u7b49\u6743\u91cd\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u548c\u4ef7\u683c\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8ba1\u7b97\u5173\u952e\u6307\u6807<\/strong>\uff1a\u7b97\u51fa\u98ce\u9669\u4ef7\u503c\uff08VaR 95%\uff09\u548c\u9884\u671f\u4e0a\u884c\u6f5c\u529b\uff08EUP\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u786e\u5b9a\u6b62\u76c8\u89e6\u53d1\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u9884\u6d4b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387<\/strong>\uff1a\u7528 HAR \u6a21\u578b\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u5468\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u6bcf\u65e5\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8ba1\u7b97\u5356\u51fa\u6570\u636e<\/strong>\uff1a\u6839\u636e EUP \u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u7b97\u51fa\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u518d\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u5356\u51fa\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5c55\u793a\u7ed3\u679c<\/strong>\uff1a\u6253\u5370\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u4f8b\u548c\u5356\u51fa\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\uff0c\u5e76\u7528\u56fe\u8868\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u5356\u51fa\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u611f\u8c22\u60a8\u9605\u8bfb\u5230\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e3a\u60a8\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u542f\u53d1\u548c\u5b9e\u7528\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\uff01\u5982\u679c\u89c9\u5f97\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\uff0c\u8bf7\u4e0d\u541d\u70b9\u8d5e\u548c\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u60a8\u7684\u652f\u6301\u662f\u6211\u6301\u7eed\u521b\u4f5c\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u795d\u60a8\u6295\u8d44\u987a\u5229\uff0c\u6536\u76ca\u957f\u8679\uff01\u5982\u679c\u5bf9\u6587\u4e2d\u5185\u5bb9\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u6b22\u8fce\u7559\u8a00\uff0c\u6211\u4f1a\u5c3d\u5feb\u56de\u590d\uff01<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">\u672c\u6587\u5185\u5bb9\u4ec5\u9650\u6280\u672f\u63a2\u8ba8\u548c\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u4e0d\u6784\u6210\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u5efa\u8bae\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u8001\u4f59\u635e\u9c7c \u539f\u521b\u4e0d\u6613\uff0c\u8f6c\u8f7d\u8bf7\u6807\u660e\u51fa\u5904\u53ca\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u3002&#8230;<\/p>\n<div class=\"more-link-wrapper\"><a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/07\/%e5%88%ab%e5%86%8d%e4%b9%b1%e5%8d%96%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%81%e8%bf%99%e5%a5%97%e9%87%8f%e5%8c%96%e6%ad%a2%e7%9b%88%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e8%af%b7%e6%9f%a5%e6%94%b6%e9%99%84%e6%ba%90%e7%a0%81\/\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u522b\u518d\u4e71\u5356\u80a1\u7968\u4e86\uff01\u8fd9\u5957\u91cf\u5316\u6b62\u76c8\u7b56\u7565\u8bf7\u67e5\u6536(\u9644\u6e90\u7801)<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[4,5,6],"class_list":{"0":"post-2079","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-aiinvest","7":"tag-ai","9":"tag-6","10":"entry"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2079","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2079"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2079\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2140,"href":"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2079\/revisions\/2140"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2079"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2079"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2079"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}